The crude oil prices were observed to be stable at the opening of trading earlier in the week (08/May). This situation occuref after this commodity was strengthening quite significantly due to the weakening of the US Dollar. 

When this news was writing, the Brent oil prices were moving at $75.61 per barrel. Meanwhile, WTI oil was bullish at $71.49 per barrel. The publication of Non-Farm Payroll data last Friday showed an increase of 253k. 

It means that this number was higher than market expectations of 180k. However, the United States Dollar actually weakened due to the risk of a banking crisis. As a result, oil prices rose more than 1 percent in last weekend's session. 

The Experts Expect for a Weaker China’s Import Data

Market focus is currently shifting to the release of Chinese trade data on Tuesday and U.S. consumer inflation due on Wednesday. A stronger-than-expected data result would be a positive signal.

It is especially for the outlook for global oil demand, given the role of the two countries as the world's largest oil consumers. Economists expect China's import data to weaken further.

It was as well as export levels that is predicted to slow from 14.8% to 8.4%. Meanwhile, the American inflation is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.4% on a monthly basis. 

The inflation rate is also important to pay attention in the market. Everything is based on its role in determining the Fed's interest rate outlook going forward. 

OPEC may do the Output Cut

In his latest policy announcement, Jerome Powell has confirmed that he will monitor the economic data. That data is included inflation and employment to decide the direction of monetary policy. 

Oil prices could potentially weaken further if the publication of United States and Chinese economic data this week confirms an economic slowdown. 

However, the price decline may be muted by OPEC's oil output cuts. The organization has announced it will cut oil production by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in May. 

This of course has the potential to reduce oil supply in the global market. The limited stock is for sure will affect the price of this commodity in the market. 

USD Exchange Rate Continues to Weaken

Elsewhere, the The USD exchange rate continued its weakening that has been going on since the end of last week. EUR/USD continued their consolidation in the area between 1.1000-1.1100.

Meanwhile, the GBP/USD reached its highest level in the past year in the range of 1.2660s at the end of the European session on Monday (May 8). The next big move is this week's major central bank meetings.

The U.S. Federal Reserve last week raised their interest rates by 25 basis points. However, then they added a slightly more dovish tone in its announcement. 

As a result, market participants have become increasingly pessimistic about the Fed's interest rate prospects. The release of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday shows very resilient US labor market conditions. 

USD has Weakened to Other Currencies 

However, the data was only able to hoist the USD for a moment amid interest rate uncertainty and the turmoil of the American banking sector. A more essential thing is also needed to see now. 

CME's FedWatch recently is showing the market participants expectation. That was a roughly 1:3 chance of a scenario where the Fed starts cutting rates in July.

As a consequence, the USD has weakened against other currencies whose central banks are expected to have higher interest rates this year. These are included the pound sterling and the Australian dollar. 

The pound sterling is the main focus this week. That was in connection with the schedule of the regular meeting of the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. Consensus expects the BoE to raise interest rates from the current 4.25% to 4.50% in that event.