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DXY Held Above 104,60 due to the Hawkish Federal Reserve

by Didimax Team

The index of United Stated dollar which is also known as DXY had been experiencing the gradual close to the level of 104.60 at the beginning of Tokyo session. The USD index was slipped slightly. 

It was especially after had a rally close to 104.80 because market participants support the risk aversion theme amidst the increasing concern about economy recession in America. 

Risk sensitive asset such as S&P500 declined by around 2.5 percent on Thursday. The cause was market participants who saw a deep impact on companies which has many debts. It is because they have to pay a higher interest than before. The companies hoped that they will show a significant decline for their operational margin sector. 

 

The Fed Believes that Inflationary will still quite High 

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is still not convinced that the softening of inflation will continue amid a tight labor market and rising Average Hourly Income. Situation is still volatile enough 

The United States Dollar's recovery after a projected higher interest rate peak by the Fed did not fade on gloomy Retail Sales data on Thursday. Monthly Retail Sales Data (November) reported a contraction of 0.6%.

Meanwhile, the street forecast a contraction of 0.1% based on a data. A drop in retail demand suggests greater downward pressure on inflation going forward.

That is as lower consumer spending is key to a lower Consumer Price Index (CPI). This may force producers to cut prices for goods and services that they offer in the market. 

Gold Price Remains Stable 

Gold prices (XAU/USD) held near the $1,777-76 support during Friday morning in Asia. Thus, this commodity is still on the seller's radar ahead of key PMI data from the UK, Europe and the US.

That is especially for December period. The 0.50% interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Swiss National and the European Central Bank raised the people concern. 

Generally, it is about higher interest rates overall and weighed on market sentiment, as well as gold prices. Those are actually not the thing which are worried by people. 

Also challenging risk appetite and supporting the selling pressure of XAU/USD are central bank concerns. For your information, they are demonstrating their readiness for higher interest rates for longer.

USD strengthened and Greenback Fell

It should be noted that risk aversion drowned Wall Street exchanges. Besides that, it also supported the yield on US Treasury bonds, which in turn allowed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to score its biggest daily gain in 10 weeks.

The USD strengthened and extended it’s sharp gains in the previous session. That was as risk appetite deteriorated with the prospect that interest rates still have a long way to go up.

The greenback briefly fell after data showed the America’s business activity shrank further in December. The cause was new orders which also slumped to their lowest level in more than 2.5 years.

Meanwhile, weaker demand helped cool inflation significantly. S&P Global stayed something on Friday about the U.S. Composite PMI Output Index.

It is especially the one which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors. This was fell to 44.6 this month from a final reading of 46.4 in November.

Private Sector is Contracted

The condition above shoes that within the sixth month in a row the index remains below 50 mark. This indicates a contraction in the private sector so far.

New York Fed President, John Williams, stated his hawkish rhetoric on Friday. He was saying that it was still possible for the US central bank to raise interest rates more than expected at this time next year.

Some people expect the Federal Reserve to deliver hawkishness Wednesday. That was said by Karl Schamotta, a chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

The dollar index rose by 0.2% to 104.74, after rallying more than 0.9%. However, analysts still warn that several changes may happen again.