The prices of oil declined amidst global growth prospect which is weaker, a higher interest rate, and COVID-19 lockdown China. These factors in fact are pressing the demands. 

It was even when the European Union considered the Russia’s oil ban which can tighten the stocks. The International Monetary Fund or so-called IMF this week will cut their global economic growth predictions. 

That is especially for 2022. If the western countries widening their sanctions over Russia for it’s war against Ukraine and if the energy price increases for further. It was said by the number 2 figure in that institution. 

The speculators long and clean bet on the US dollar slumped for the third weeks in a row. It was based on a calculation done by Reuters and the Commission of Commodity Futures Trading Commodity Futures Trading data released on Friday.

The Limited Stocks and the Effects 

For the stock side, The Russian-Kazakh Caspian Pipeline Consortium or known as CPC is expected to resume their full exports again. That will be from April 22 after nearly 30 days of disruptions.

However, the limited stocks gave a support because Libya lost it’s production for 550000 barrel per day. It was caused by some problems. In fact, the limited stock can be worse than before. 

It is especially if the European Union applied an embargo to Russia’s oil. The European commission is now working to boost the alternative energy availability in the global market. 

A senior advisor from the White House said that he is quite sure that European want to close or limit the existed oil and gas from Russia further. This situation is possible to happen. 

Morgan Stanley also Gave His Prediction

Morgan Stanley increased his prediction about the Brent Price in the third quarter period. That was for about $100 per barrel to become $130. It was based on a bigger deficit this year. 

The cause is a lower stock from Russia and Iran which is possible to exceed the short – term demand. Meanwhile, the GBP / USF has started it’s new week under the bearish pressure. 

It declined to 1,2700 after losing more than 1% on Friday. US dollar is better than it’s comoetitors amidst the risk avoidance where Pound is strugglinh to find a demand on a dismal UK data. 

That made this pair is going further and further. If buyers failed to maintain 1,2700 level, the next bearish target can be seen in 1,2630. So, market participants are still waiting for the updates. 

The COVID-19 in China Weight on the Market 

The retail sales data in the United Kingdom was disappointing on Friday. CBI or the UK business confederation reported on Monday that the manufacture optimism balance declined. 

It went to the lowest level since April 2020. Meanwhile, the corona virus situation which is worsening in China and the long Russia conflict continue to weight on the market further. 

The UK FTSE 100 index lost for more than 2 percent every day. The US stock index also slumped by almost one percent along the European trading hour. It means that the impact is real. 

USD Is Strong in the Forex Market

Elsewhere, the wall Street major index is still in a track to start a day far from the negative area on Monday. It showed that dollar maybe will maintain it’s power in a safe haven situation. 

The index of dollar which tracks it’s performance to other 6 major currencies increased by 0.6% lately every day in 101.65. Gold was seen again recording It’s weakness in trading on Monday (25/April) or yesterday.

The cause is it was still depressed by the strengthening of the Greenback. The reason is, the fed's more aggressive rate hike signal is getting stronger. Gold is also trading weaker, making the daily trading bias bearish.