Pound Sterling slipped again for about 0.3 percent. It reached the level of 1.3870 versus the US dollar in the European session yesterday. That happened online with the USD appreciation ahead of some events. 

At the same time, several analysts are so pessimistic to the Sterling outlook versus USD and EUR. It is because tge Scotland independent referendum is now becoming popular again. 

Scotland will hold the parliamentary election in 6 of May. That Scottish National party or SNP is led by its Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon. She becomes the winner of some polling related to the election result. 

How If That Party Win? 

That party is a local pro-Independence one. If they really win the major parliament space in Scotland, the England government will be pushed to hold the Scotland independent referenm again. 

A referendum with the same topic has been held in 2014. In that time, the pro-England side win the competition in a tight result. The scenario can be worse for Sterling in certain situations. 

It is especially if the two minor parties which support the Scotland independence, Alba and Green,  can get more supports than the previous election. That will make their coalition is stronger. 

That is why; many analysts think that the election is quite important to be checked. The result can bring the wave in the market and heat up the concern about the England prospect after Brexit. 

The Possibility in The Future

The concern above raised the worry that maybe some day Scotland will leave the England. They can have a consideration to enter the European Union as an independent country. 

It must be noted that the pro-European Union group won significantly in Scotland. That happened in the Brexit 2016 referendum. The election voice gotten in that time is 62% No Brexit be 38% yes Brexit. 

Th Brexit result then made some Scottish were not satisfied. Paul Robson stated that his team has been cut the Pound exposure ahead the Scottish election. It is done to anticipate several aspects. 

It is especially for the things which can create any doubts about the unity of British. Everything is about the balancing effort between the event risk and long position in Sterling. Another analyst said something different. 

The GBP May Be Weakened

A forex strategy expert stated that the election announcement in 6 of May maybe make the GBP responds. That can be weakened in that time, especially if SNP win most of the spaces there. 

However, it may just create a short-term effect in the market. Elsewhere, the index of dollar increased slowly and reached its daily highest record in the level of 91.12 in the market. 

That happened on the early European session yesterday. The market participants are waiting for the announcement about the new monetary policies from the Federal Reserve. It is not only that. 

They are also waiting for the Joe Biden speech about the new stimulus llanters that will be said in several hours ahead. However, many parties already have their prediction about these things. 

The Fed May Not Change Its Policy

So far, people believe that The fed maybe will not change their monetary policy direction. It is especially the loose decision made. Jerome Powell can repeat the dovish messages that he have stated before. 

The point is that the US central bank will not increase its interest rate before the inflation speed reach the target. The target is more than 2%. If that dovish is expressed again, USD can have a huge weight. 

However, there is one more event that will become the market catalys. It is the Biden’s speech about the infrastructure fund that will be taken by increasing tax for the rich people in America.